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Surprisingly Good December Jobs Report

U.S. December Nonfarm Payrolls Grew by 312,000; Jobless Rate Rose to 3.9%

Employers added an average of 220,000 jobs a month in 2018, the best growth since 2015

September Jobs Report, 3.7% Unemployment Rate, Lowest Since 1969

3.7% Unemployment Rate, Lowest Since 1969 - Positive For Housing
The September Jobs Report in 9 Charts

 

 
The share of the population that is in the labor force—defined as those working or actively searching for work—has hovered a bit below 63% this year. The rate has seen little sustained improvement or deterioration for the past five years. The share of the population that works was little changed last month, but has trended upward in recent years.
 
 
Participation rates are much higher for workers ages 25 to 54, where people are less likely to be out of the labor force due to retirement or education. The labor-force participation rate and employment-population ratio have both declined slightly in recent months.
 
 
 
The median spell of unemployment now lasts about nine weeks. This is much improved from the years right after the recession, but is still a few weeks longer than was typical during the strong labor markets of the late 1990s. Although job loss is now relatively rare, when it happens it can linger a bit longer than usual.
 
 
Even as the economy has improved, workers with different education levels face much different rates of unemployment. Those without a high-school degree have 5.5% unemployment while college graduates have an unemployment rate of just 2%.
 
 
Unemployment rates have trended down for workers of all races and genders in recent years. The unemployment rates for white women, black men and Hispanic women are all at the lowest in at least several decades.
 
 
With nine months down, 2018 is shaping up to be one of the stronger years of job growth since the recession.
 
 
Related Article: 

U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls to Lowest Level Since 1969 https://on.wsj.com/2Obbq68

American 6.7 Million Job Openings Now Outnumber the 6.3 Million Jobless

American Job Openings Now Outnumber the Jobless

 

U.S. job openings rose to 6.7 million at the end of April, compared with the 6.3 million Americans who were unemployed

US GDP Grows At 2.6% In Q2

                                     Modest Growth Path

Economy enters ninth year of expansion, growing at a 2.6% annual rate in the second quarter

 

 

 

The U.S. emerged from recession in mid-2009. Since then, GDP growth has averaged 2.1%. In contrast, growth averaged 3.6% during a 10-year span in the 1990s and 4.9% during a nearly nine-year stretch in the 1960s, the only two expansions with longer durations.

Slow and steady has produced a long stretch of job creation and left the economy on mostly stable footing, with few signs of the kind of excess that in the past have derailed long periods of growth.

1st Quarter 2017 GDP Revised Upward To 1.4%

The U.S. economic expansion remains on track as it prepares to enter its ninth year.  
 
Gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the U.S. economy, expanded at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday
 
 
Growing Slightly Faster
First-quarter GDP, initially reported at an anemic 0.7%, has been revised up in subsequentmonths and now stands at 1.4%.

Macroeconomic Advisers on Thursday projected a 3.3% GDP growth rate for the spring quarter and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model earlier this week predicted 2.9% growth. ...

… the current expansion has been disappointingly weak, with GDP growth averaging just 2.1% a year.  That is weaker than any other recovery since at least 1949. Still, the unemployment rate has continued to decline, hitting 4.3% in May—its lowest level in 16 years. For

Full Article Go To https://goo.gl/33wgQT

Fed Raises Fed Fund Rate 1/4%, Sees Two More Rate Increases In 2017

Fed Raises Fed Fund Rate 1/4%. Sees Two More Rate Increases in 2017

U.S. central bankers see no major changes in their economic outlook

By 
DAVID HARRISON

Full Article - https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-still-sees-three-2017-rate-increases-1489601028?tesla=y

WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve officials still expect to raise short-term interest rates two more times this year after lifting them Wednesday—and they see no major changes in their economic outlook. 

In economic projections released Wednesday following a two-day policy meeting, officials also penciled in three more quarter-percentage-point moves in 2018. They also see interest rates settling at their long-run average of 3% by the end of 2019, slightly sooner than they foresaw in their December projections. 

Officials took the first step Wednesday by raising their benchmark federal-funds rate as expected by a quarter-percentage-point to a range between 0.75%and 1 %.  ...

Wednesday’s projections show Fed officials see the economy growing 2.1% in 2017, the same pace as in December. They see growth at 2.1% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019 before settling at its longer-run average of 1.8%. 

They expect an unemployment rate of 4.5% at the end of the next three years. Projections for the longer-run unemployment rate ticked down to 4.7% from 4.8% in December. 

Officials see inflation ending the year at 1.9% and rising to the Fed’s 2% target by 2018.

Write to David Harrison at david.harrison@wsj.com

Robust Feb 2017 Job Growth May Lead To Rate Increase

Robust Job Growth, Higher Wages Show Solid Labor Market

 

Data clears the way for Fed rate increase next week

… The U.S. economic expansion is now the third-longest on record and showed no signs of letting up in February, with robust hiring, falling unemployment and firmer wage growth opening the way for the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates.

Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 235,000 from January, exceeding forecasters’ expectations, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.7%. Average hourly earnings in the private sector rose 2.8% from a year earlier, a sign that the tightening job market is pushing employers to raise pay.

 

... The mild winter likely boosted the pace of hiring, especially in the weather-sensitive construction sector. The construction industry added 58,000 jobs last month after adding 40,000 in January, strong gains that some economists said could lead to weaker readings in the spring.

Meantime, there is little sign of acceleration in overall economic activity during the early months of 2017; many forecasters expect another quarter of sub-2% growth due to a wider trade deficit and moderate consumer spending.

Still, there are hints of building momentum. The share of Americans in their prime working years, ages 25 to 54, who were employed in February, hit 78.3%, the highest level since October 2008. The labor-force participation rate ticked up to 63%, a sign that a healthier job market is stemming a tide of labor-force dropouts.

… Manufacturers added 28,000 jobs in February and 57,000 positions over the past three months.

 

… At 2.8%, February’s annual growth for private-sector hourly earnings matched the second-highest reading of the current expansion. Some of the strongest wage growth has come at the bottom of the pay scale; the leisure and hospitality sector, for instance, saw earnings rise 4.2% on the year. ...

... Some 23.8% of America’s 7.5 million unemployed workers have been out of a job for longer than six months, an elevated rate of long-term unemployment, compared with the prerecession years. An additional 5.7 million people are working part-time because they can’t find full-time jobs. And the pace of wage growth, while improved, remains below precrisis levels.

 

MA July Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 4.7%, Labor Participation Rate 65.8%

 
MA July Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 4.7% VS US Unemployment Rate of 5.3%, also unchanged
MA unemployment Rate fell 1% from last year as  85,700 more jobs were added. 
MA Labor Participation Rate was 65.8% VS 62.6 for US.
 
 
 

Mortgage Rates Hit 2015 High - 4.2% for 30 Year Fixed

Mortgage Rates Up - 30 Year at 4.2%

MA April 2015 Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.7%

MA Unemployment Rate continues to drop..  April's rate was 4.7% which is 1.1% below a year ago.  

Net jobs increased 10,100 in April and increased 66,100 jobs over the past year.

 

http://lmi2.detma.org/lmi/lmi_graph.asp

 http://lmi2.detma.org/lmi/News_release_local.asp